Clients & Friends,

I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays, and are now ready for 2024.   

I attached here the December 2023 Southern Connecticut Real Estate Market Analysis.  In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all Southern Connecticut.  I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market.  I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible. 

Single family home sales for December 2023 in Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 155 units vs. 143 in November 2023, versus 140 and 263 in December 2022 and 2021.  The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract.  As of December 31st, this leading indicator is 56, which is lower than last month (76), and about the same as December 2022 (60).  Overall, pricing continues to remain firm across the last several months due to the lack of inventory, which is the largest factor influencing sales.  For the year, there were 543 homes sold in Stamford, and 70% sold at, or above the asking price.  For November and December, 66% of the homes sold at, or above the list price –this trend is not changing.  In 2020, the last year before the decline in inventories, only 34% of homes sold at, or above the list price.  In 2023, 29% of the homes sold in Stamford were at, or above $1 million.  Back in 2020, only 13% of the homes sold for $1 million or more.

Stamford condo sales in December were 44 units vs. 63 last month, and 50 in December 2022.  In Stamford, condos with accepted offers/under contract as of December 31st was 75 versus 81 last month, and 64 in December 2022.  As reported the last several months, condo sales have also been impacted by the lack of inventory.  Similar to single family homes, condo prices are holding pretty firm.  For 2023, 588 condos were sold in Stamford, and 68% sold at, or above the asking price.  For November and December, 68% of the condos sold at, or above the list price – similar to single family homes, this trend is not changing.  For comparison purposes, in 2020, only 23% of condos sold at, or above the list price.  In 2023, 27% of the condos sold in Stamford were at, or above $500,000.  Only 17% of the condos in 2020 sold for $500,000 or more. Pricing trends for single family homes and condos seem to be very similar.

Interest rates for conforming mortgages have come down to the mid 6% range. The projections that I have seen are showing interest rates (at best) in the low 6% range throughout 2024.  Even though interest rates are coming down, there not have been any signs of increases in inventories (although it is still early).

Recently, I have reviewed data that indicates that credit card debt has risen, and homeowners are refinancing their home mortgages in order to reduce credit card debt where interest rates could be in the 20% plus range. They are able to do this because the indicative higher home values has in turn significantly increased home-owners’ equity.  However, refinancing an existing low interest mortgage can be expensive as closing costs will likely be in the $3,000 range, and the interest rate on a new mortgage will probably be much higher than your legacy mortgage.  If you are in this scenario, another option to consider is getting a home equity line of credit (HELOC).  The status of the current mortgage will not change, typically there are no closing costs, you only borrow what you actually need, the line is available for a period of time (ie 10 years), the interest rate will vary with prime, and is probably at least half of the interest rate on credit card debt.  You will only incur costs if you borrow against the line, and you have a lot of flexibility when, and how the loan will be repaid. 

I believe inventories will increase very modestly over the next 3 months.  Demand continues to be high, and as I have been stating for months, I think the lower interest rates will lead to higher selling prices unless inventories increase significantly (which I doubt will happen).  The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, and high demand with low supply means higher prices. 

As mentioned in prior newsletters, most homes are selling with multiple offers, which means you must get creative to improve the quality of your offer.  I listed below some ways to improve of the quality of your offer OTHER THAN increasing the price you are willing to pay.  Some points that should be considered are:

1. 20% or more down payment – a larger down payment is attractive to a seller because it helps mitigate the risk of the home not appraising.   
2. Consider a certified pre-approved mortgage.  A pre-approved mortgage has already been reviewed by the underwriter, and the only step that needs to be done is the home appraisal.  This should reduce the time significantly to have a clear-to-close for the mortgage.  Additionally, this increases the seller’s confidence the mortgage will be approved 
3. Waive the appraisal contingency – if you do this, you must be prepared financially to cover an appraisal shortfall.
4. Waive the inspection – this could be risky particularly for older homes, but is certainly attractive to the seller.
5. Waive the mortgage contingency – only consider this if you either don’t need a mortgage, or you know for certain that a mortgage will not be a problem.
6. Close at the seller’s convenience – possibly even rent the home back to the seller if they need time to find a new home.
7. Cash with no contingencies – obviously the best option for the seller.

All of these options do have a certain amount of risk, and as your agent, I will help explain all the angles and potential consequences to you.

As reminder, please visit my new website (www.hjdubman.com), which contains lots of useful information for both buyers and sellers.  The website includes planning guides for both buying and selling a home, and details some of the decisions which will have to be made.  I have detailed out potential closing costs for buyers and sellers, included a mortgage calculator, and provided the ability to search for available homes anywhere in Connecticut.  Please take a look, and let me know what you think.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime.  If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them. 

To view the detail report please CLICK HERE

Howard Dubman

GRI, ABR, MBA, BA

Mobile 203-981-7047

Email: howard@howarddubman.com

Website: www.hjdubman.com

License in Connecticut and New York  

Clients & Friends,

Attached is the November 2023 Southern Connecticut Real Estate Market Analysis.  In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all Southern Connecticut.  I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market.  I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible. 

Single family home sales for November 2023 in Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 143 units vs. 135 in October 2023, compared with 166 and 239 from November 2022 and 2021.  The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract.  As of December 12th, this leading indicator is 76, which is lower than last month (92), last year (78), and 2021 (164).  Last month, this indicator was higher than the prior month for this first time in quite in a while, but it seems we are back to trending below last year.  Overall, pricing continues to remain firm across the last several months due to the lack of inventory, which is the largest factor influencing sales.  Both November and December activity is normally slow because of the holidays, and it is very difficult to determine if there are any changes in trend until we get January results.  I do not see anything that suggests the market is changing.

Stamford condo sales in November were 63 units vs. 56 last month, and 62 in November 2022.  In Stamford, condos with accepted offers/under contract as of December 12th was 81 versus 86 last month, 80 in November 2022, and 146 in November 2021.  As reported the last several months, condo sales have also been impacted by the lack of inventory.  Similar to single family homes, condo prices are holding pretty firm.

Over the last few months, I discussed my view on the potential impact of a decrease in interest rates, which I believe is worth recapping.  A 1-point decrease in interest rate reduces a monthly mortgage payment by approximately 10% – 11%.  This means the mortgage principal could be increased by 11% for each point that the interest rate decreases, and the mortgage payment would be the same.  The big question is what happens to selling prices if interest rates go down.  I have talked to many real estate professionals, and most believe it will prompt higher selling prices.  We all doubt that a one- or two-point interest rate change would have any significant change in inventories.  Buyers would have more purchasing power which would probably result in higher selling prices.  Therefore, in my opinion, lower interest rates will not be an immediate financial benefit to buyers.  If I were in the market today, I would try to purchase today, and then refinance whenever interest rates came down (refinancing would typically cost around $3,000).

Looking forward, I still expect inventories for both single-family homes and condos to remain constant through December and then increase modestly during the first quarter of 2024.  I expect the market to continue to be a very strong sellers’ market as demand remains high.  I cannot think of a reason why pricing would change so long as interest rates remain near the current levels and inventories are so depressed.  The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, and high demand with low supply means prices will increase. 

In light of the extreme competition related to getting an offer accepted, I listed below some ways to improve of the quality of your offer OTHER THAN increasing the price you are willing to pay.  Some points that should be considered are:

1. >20% or more down payment – a larger down payment is attractive to a seller because it helps mitigate the risk of the appraisal not coming through.
2. Consider a certified pre-approved mortgage.  A pre-approved mortgage has already been reviewed by the underwriter, and the only step that needs to be done is the home appraisal.  This should reduce the time significantly to have a clear -to-close for the mortgage.
3. Waive the appraisal contingency – if you do this, you must be prepared financially to cover an appraisal shortfall.
4. Waive the inspection – this could be risky particularly for older homes, but is certainly attractive to the seller.
5. Waive the mortgage contingency – only consider this if you either don’t need a mortgage, or you know for certain that a mortgage will not be a problem.
6. Cash with no contingencies – obviously the best option for a seller.
7. Close at the seller’s convenience – possibly even rent the home back to the seller if they need time to find a new home.

All of these options do have a certain amount of risk, and as your agent, I will help explain all the angles and potential consequences to you.

I would like remind everyone that I have a new website (www.hjdubman.com) with lots of useful information for both buyers and sellers.  The website includes planning guides for both buying and selling a home, and details some of the decisions which will have to be made.  I have detailed potential closing costs for buyers and sellers, included a mortgage calculator, and provided the ability to search for available homes anywhere in Connecticut.  Please take a look, and let me know what you think.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime.  If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them.

To view the detail report please CLICK HERE                                         

Howard Dubman

GRI, ABR, MBA, BA

Mobile 203-981-7047

Email: howard@howarddubman.com

Website: www.hjdubman.com

License in Connecticut and New York 

Clients & Friends,

In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all of Southern Connecticut. I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market. I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible.

Single-family home sales in October 2023 for Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 135 units vs. 160 in July 2023 along with 194 and 241 from October 2022 and 2021. The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract. As of November 6th, this leading indicator is 92, which is higher than last month (75) and last year (87), but well below 2021 (146). This is the first time in several months that this leading indicator is higher than the prior month. This is good news, but we must be aware this is still much lower than 2021 and one month does not represent a new trend. However, I will be watching this very carefully. Overall, pricing continues to remain firm across the last several months due to the lack of inventory, which is the largest factor influencing sales. A comparison of the October 2023 inventory of 493 versus the October average inventory from 2011 – 2020 of 1,913 shows the October inventory was 25.8% of the 10-year average. The good news is last month’s September inventory was 24.3% so there are some signs of improvement.

Stamford condo sales in October were 56 units vs. 43 for August 2023 and 50 in October 2022. In Stamford, condos with accepted offers/under contract as of November 6th were 81 versus 86 last month 74 in October 2022, and 146 in October 2021. As reported in the last several months, condo sales have also been impacted by the lack of inventory. Similar to single-family homes, condo pricing softened in July but picked back up in August, September, and October.

Over the last few months, I discussed my view on the potential impact of a decrease in interest rates. I think this is worth repeating, as buyers should consider what a change in interest rates may do to housing prices. Recall that a 1-point decrease in interest rate reduces a monthly mortgage payment by approximately 10% – 11%. The mortgage principal could be increased by 11% for each point of interest decrease and keep payments the same. The big question is what happens to selling prices if interest rates go down. I have talked to a lot of real estate professionals, and most believe it will prompt higher selling prices. We all doubt that a one- or two-point change would have any significant change in inventories. Buyers would have more purchasing power which would probably result in higher selling prices. Therefore, in my opinion, lower interest rates will not be a financial benefit to buyers. If I were in the market today, I would try to purchase today, and then refinance whenever interest rates came down.

Looking forward, I still expect inventories for both single-family homes and condos to increase modestly as they did in October. I expect the market to continue to be a very strong sellers’ market as demand remains high. I cannot think of any reason why pricing would change so long as interest rates remain near the current levels while inventories are so depressed. The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, and with high demand and low supply, prices will increase.

With so many homes selling at, or above, the asking price, I have to believe that most of the recent sales were multiple offer situations. This is when buyers are asked to submit their highest and best offer. In many cases, the highest offer may not be accepted if a lower offer has better terms. For example – a home with a list price of $800,000 receives 2 offers. One for $840,000, subject to mortgage, appraisal, and inspection contingencies while the second offer is $835,000 cash with no contingencies. The majority of sellers would take the lower offer because there is less risk of the deal falling apart, and the buyer is committed when the contract is signed (as opposed to waiting for the bank to approve the mortgage). Therefore, when submitting offers there are ways to improve the quality of your offer. Some points that should be considered are:

1. 20% or more down payment – a larger down payment is attractive to a seller because it helps mitigate the risk of the appraisal not coming through.
2. Consider a certified pre-approved mortgage. A pre-approved mortgage has already been reviewed by the underwriter, and the only step that needs to be done is the home appraisal. This should reduce the time significantly to have a clear-to-close for the mortgage.
3. Waive the appraisal contingency – if you do this, you must be prepared financially to cover an appraisal shortfall.
4. Waive the inspection – this could be risky, particularly for older homes, but is certainly attractive to the seller.
5. Waive the mortgage contingency – only consider this if you either don’t need a mortgage, or you know for certain that a mortgage will not be a problem.
6. Cash with no contingencies – obviously the best option for a seller.
7. Close at the seller’s convenience – possibly even rent the home back to the seller if they need time to find a new home.

All of these options do have a certain amount of risk, and as your agent, I will help explain all the angles and pressure points for you.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime. If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them.

To view the detailed report please CLICK HERE

Howard Dubman
GRI, ABR, MBA, BA
Mobile 203-981-7047
Email: howard@howarddubman.com
Website: www.hjdubman.com
License in Connecticut and New York

In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all Southern Fairfield County. I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market. I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible.

Single family home sales in September 2023 for Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 160 units vs. 226 in August 2023 along with 220 and 298 from September 2022 and 2021. The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract. As of October 9th, this leading indicator is about the same as last month, but well below both 2022 and 2021 (75 vs 73, 112 and 165). Overall, pricing has remained firm the last several months due to the lack of inventory, the largest factor influencing sales. A comparison of the September 2023 inventory of 484 versus the September average inventory from 2011 – 2020 of 1,992 shows the vast change in market dynamics.

Stamford condo sales in September were 43 units vs. 53 for August 2023 and 67 in September 2022. In Stamford, condos with accepted offers/under contract as of October 9th was 86 versus 89 last month and 90 September 2022 and 134 in September 2021. As reported the last several months, condo sales have also been impacted by the lack of inventory. Similar to single family homes, condo prices did soften in July, but picked up in August and remained firm in September.

Last month I discussed the impact of a decrease in interest rates. Monthly mortgage payments would be reduced between 10% and 11% for each point that the interest rate is reduced. Alternatively, the mortgage amount could be increase around 11% for each point of interest decrease and keep payments the same. The big question is what happens to selling prices if interest rates go down. I have talked to a lot of real estate professionals, and most believe it will prompt higher selling prices. We all doubt that a one- or two-point change would have any significant change in inventories. Buyers would have more purchasing power which would probably result in higher selling prices. Therefore, in my opinion, lower interest rates will not be a financial benefit to buyers. If I were in the market today, I would try to purchase today, and then refinance whenever interest rates came down.

Looking forward, I still expect inventories for both single-family homes and condos to increase modestly. The market will continue to be a very strong sellers’ market as demand remains high. During August and September, prices have remained firm. In fact, during August and September 112 single family homes were sold in Stamford, and 76 of them (68%) were at, or above the list price. I cannot think of any reason why this would change while inventories are so depressed. The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, and with a high demand and low supply, prices will increase.

With so many homes selling at, or above, the asking price I have to believe that most of these sales were multiple offers. This is when buyers are being asked to submit their highest and best offer. In many cases, the highest offer may not get accepted if a lower offer has better terms. For example – a home with a list price of $800,000 receives 2 offers. One for $840,000, subject to mortgage, appraisal and inspection contingencies while the second offer is $835,000 cash with no contingencies. The majority of sellers would take the lower offer because there is less risk of the deal falling apart, and the buyer is committed when the contract is signed (as opposed to waiting for the bank to approve the mortgage). Therefore, when submitting offers there are ways to improve the quality of your offer. Some points that should be considered are:

1. 20% or more down payment – a larger down payment is attractive to a seller because it helps mitigate the risk of the appraisal not coming through.
2. Consider a certified pre-approved mortgage. A pre-approved mortgage has already been reviewed by the underwriter, and the only step that needs to be done is the home appraisal. This should reduce the time significantly to have a clear -to-close for the mortgage.
3. Waive the appraisal contingency – if you do this, you must be prepared financially to cover an appraisal shortfall.
4. Waive the inspection – this could be risky particularly for older homes, but is certainly attractive to the seller.
5. Waive the mortgage contingency – only consider this if you either don’t need a mortgage, or you know for certain that a mortgage will not be a problem.
6. Cash with no contingencies – obviously the best option for a seller.
7. Close at the seller’s convenience – possibly even rent the home back to the seller if they need time to find a new home.

All of these options do have a certain amount of risk, and as your agent, I will help explain all the angles and pressure-points for you.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime. If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them.

To view the detail report please Click Here

Howard Dubman
GRI, ABR, MBA, BA
Mobile 203-981-7047
Email: howard@howarddubman.com
Website: www.hjdubman.com
License in Connecticut and New York