Southern CT Real Estate Market Analysis – October 2024

The following is the October 2024 Southern Connecticut Real Estate Market Analysis.  In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all Southern Connecticut.  I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market.  I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible.

The year-end holidays are almost here.  Typically, the real estate business is very slow during November, December and the first part of January.  With all the uncertainty with the economy and interest rates, I expect the market to be slow again this year.

Last month I reported that interest rates for conforming loans with strong profiles (20% down and very good credit) were in the mid 5% range. Unfortunately, rates have increased, and as of November 12^th, rates for the aforementioned profile were in the high 6% range. As a result of rates going back up, we did not experience any market valuation changes resulting from interest rate changes.  Demand continues to be very strong, and I still believe (as I have been stating for months) that sustained interest rates below 6% will lead to higher selling prices UNLESS inventories increase significantly (which is highly doubtful).  In October, inventories were relatively flat.   Additionally, in October total new single family homes listings for the 5 towns (219) declined from both last month (225) and last year (222).   Therefore, I do not see any trends which would support an increase in inventories.

Single family home sales for October 2024 in Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 146 units vs. 171 units in September 2024, 142 in October 2023, and 194 in October 2022.  The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract.  In Stamford as of November 12^th, there were 87 homes with accepted offers/under contract, which is about the same as both last month (78) and last year (92).  Last month I noted that pricing seemed to have ticked down slightly, but in October pricing was at its highest level for the last 3 months.  Demand is still strong, and with no increase in inventories, as discussed above, I expect pricing will stay pretty flat, and even could increase slightly over the next few months.

Stamford condo sales in October were 44 units vs. 39 homes in September and 36 in October 2023.  In Stamford, 79 condos had accepted offers/under contract as of November 12th versus 67 in October, and 81 in October 2023.  As previously reported, condo sales have also been severely impacted by the lack of inventory.  Condo prices are up modestly compared to the 3-month trend.  As of November 12th, total condo inventory in Stamford was only 55 homes, which is virtually the same as last 2 months, and is only 1.3 months of supply.  Additionally, new listings for the past 3 months were 159 units vs. 180 units a year ago.  Similar to single family homes, there are no trends that would indicate that inventories will increase.  For comparisons sake, in July 2020, the condo inventory in Stamford was 182 units, and in 2019 it was 253 units.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime.  If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them.

To view the detail report please click on the below link.  Additionally, if you would like detail information on any town in Connecticut let me know and I will provide it.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wRJ3kufOqL_4z3lSmwaxgCXIO8UXcZDC/view?usp=sharing