Southern CT | Real Estate Market Analysis | November 2023

Clients & Friends,

Attached is the November 2023 Southern Connecticut Real Estate Market Analysis.  In preparing this report every month, I keep myself up to date on the market economics for all Southern Connecticut.  I have a financial background (MBA in finance), and I enjoy analyzing detailed financial data so I can maintain a good understanding of the market.  I then use this knowledge to help my clients (both buyers and sellers) understand the market and get them the best deal possible. 

Single family home sales for November 2023 in Stamford, Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Norwalk were 143 units vs. 135 in October 2023, compared with 166 and 239 from November 2022 and 2021.  The best leading indicator for future sales is homes with accepted offers/under contract.  As of December 12th, this leading indicator is 76, which is lower than last month (92), last year (78), and 2021 (164).  Last month, this indicator was higher than the prior month for this first time in quite in a while, but it seems we are back to trending below last year.  Overall, pricing continues to remain firm across the last several months due to the lack of inventory, which is the largest factor influencing sales.  Both November and December activity is normally slow because of the holidays, and it is very difficult to determine if there are any changes in trend until we get January results.  I do not see anything that suggests the market is changing.

Stamford condo sales in November were 63 units vs. 56 last month, and 62 in November 2022.  In Stamford, condos with accepted offers/under contract as of December 12th was 81 versus 86 last month, 80 in November 2022, and 146 in November 2021.  As reported the last several months, condo sales have also been impacted by the lack of inventory.  Similar to single family homes, condo prices are holding pretty firm.

Over the last few months, I discussed my view on the potential impact of a decrease in interest rates, which I believe is worth recapping.  A 1-point decrease in interest rate reduces a monthly mortgage payment by approximately 10% – 11%.  This means the mortgage principal could be increased by 11% for each point that the interest rate decreases, and the mortgage payment would be the same.  The big question is what happens to selling prices if interest rates go down.  I have talked to many real estate professionals, and most believe it will prompt higher selling prices.  We all doubt that a one- or two-point interest rate change would have any significant change in inventories.  Buyers would have more purchasing power which would probably result in higher selling prices.  Therefore, in my opinion, lower interest rates will not be an immediate financial benefit to buyers.  If I were in the market today, I would try to purchase today, and then refinance whenever interest rates came down (refinancing would typically cost around $3,000).

Looking forward, I still expect inventories for both single-family homes and condos to remain constant through December and then increase modestly during the first quarter of 2024.  I expect the market to continue to be a very strong sellers’ market as demand remains high.  I cannot think of a reason why pricing would change so long as interest rates remain near the current levels and inventories are so depressed.  The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, and high demand with low supply means prices will increase. 

In light of the extreme competition related to getting an offer accepted, I listed below some ways to improve of the quality of your offer OTHER THAN increasing the price you are willing to pay.  Some points that should be considered are:

1. >20% or more down payment – a larger down payment is attractive to a seller because it helps mitigate the risk of the appraisal not coming through.
2. Consider a certified pre-approved mortgage.  A pre-approved mortgage has already been reviewed by the underwriter, and the only step that needs to be done is the home appraisal.  This should reduce the time significantly to have a clear -to-close for the mortgage.
3. Waive the appraisal contingency – if you do this, you must be prepared financially to cover an appraisal shortfall.
4. Waive the inspection – this could be risky particularly for older homes, but is certainly attractive to the seller.
5. Waive the mortgage contingency – only consider this if you either don’t need a mortgage, or you know for certain that a mortgage will not be a problem.
6. Cash with no contingencies – obviously the best option for a seller.
7. Close at the seller’s convenience – possibly even rent the home back to the seller if they need time to find a new home.

All of these options do have a certain amount of risk, and as your agent, I will help explain all the angles and potential consequences to you.

I would like remind everyone that I have a new website (www.hjdubman.com) with lots of useful information for both buyers and sellers.  The website includes planning guides for both buying and selling a home, and details some of the decisions which will have to be made.  I have detailed potential closing costs for buyers and sellers, included a mortgage calculator, and provided the ability to search for available homes anywhere in Connecticut.  Please take a look, and let me know what you think.

If you have any questions regarding this report or are interested in buying and/or selling a home, please contact me anytime.  If there is anyone you know who is interested in buying or selling a home, I would very much appreciate you giving them my name or sending me their email address and I will contact them.

To view the detail report please CLICK HERE                                         

Howard Dubman

GRI, ABR, MBA, BA

Mobile 203-981-7047

Email: howard@howarddubman.com

Website: www.hjdubman.com

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